The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announced last week its list of nominations for the 83rd annual Oscars. The Academy amplified the Best Picture category last year to include a bloated 10 nominees, leaving little room for major shutouts. This year’s only significant dismissal was Ben Affleck’s The Town, but most people have probably already forgotten about it anyway.
Now that I’ve seen each of the 10 films nominated for the top prize, I’ll take a look at them in ascending order of my personal picks and discuss each one’s likelihood to win at the Feb. 27 ceremony.
10. 127 Hours
Danny Boyle’s Slumdog Millionaire follow-up clocks in as the shortest entry on the list at only 94 minutes. The true story of Aron Ralston, who was forced to cut off his own arm after spending five days with it penned between a literal rock and a hard place, 127 Hours made headlines as moviegoers have reportedly passed out during the graphic amputation scene.
Can it win? In short, no. Not only is it my least favorite entry on the list, but it also seems to have the smallest chance of winning. The film was denied nominations in several precursor Best Picture awards, including the Golden Globes. Boyle was additionally left off the Academy’s Best Director list, leaving the film with Best Actor (James Franco) and Best Adapted Screenplay noms — both of which it won’t win. Add in those factors with the film’s grittiness and the fact that it simply isn’t as unforgettable as most of the other entries, and it looks like Boyle and company can just sit back and enjoy the show.
9. Inception
One of the most talked-about snubs came in not including Inception’s Christopher Nolan on the shortlist for Best Director, making the summer blockbuster — which grossed almost $293 million — seem like a bit of an afterthought.
Can it win? Despite the glittering reviews, memorably elaborate visual effects and inclusion on a plethora of pre-Oscar nomination lists, Inception is simply lost among the overcrowded category at this point. Nolan’s snub was substantial, and the fact it was released in July — when most standard Oscar bait is still wrapping post-production — makes this dazzler something of a has-been.
8. The Social Network
David Fincher’s hugely acclaimed Facebook flick had been tagged (no pun intended) by many critics as the best film of the year. It’s young, sleek, modern and an entirely different fare than what the Academy typically honors. It didn’t earn the most nominations — that honor rightfully went to The King’s Speech — but thanks to its inclusion in several of the major categories (Director, Actor, Screenplay) and its dominance in the precursor awards, it might be a safe bet to place your money on this one.
Can it win? Absolutely. Up until this past weekend, in fact, nothing could beat it. It had won the Golden Globe, Critics Choice Award and Writers Guild Award — and that only begins the list. But now Speech has taken the top prize as the Screen Actors Guild Awards and the Directors Guild Award, giving Network a one-on-one battle for victory. Whether it will win largely depends on Network’s and Speech’s campaigns over the next few weeks, but I would place my bet on this one.
7. Winter’s Bone
Let’s label this one “the little indie that could.” Its chances of garnering a nomination fluctuated in the months leading up to the announcement, but the Sundance hit edged out The Town to land a spot. It also received two acting nominations (Jennifer Lawrence for Actress and John Hawkes for Supporting Actor) and a Screenplay nod, allowing the gloomy film about a 17-year-old on the hunt to find her meth-head dad to be a substantial Oscar entry.
Can it win? With all the blockbusters included in the category, Bone — which grossed the least at the box office with only $6 million — should feel honored simply to be nominated. Too many other films stand out here, so it isn’t favored to prevail in any of its categories.
6. Toy Story 3
Only the third animated film ever to be nominated for Best Picture (after Beauty and the Beast and last year’s Up), Toy Story 3 received unanimously enthusiastic reviews and clocks in as the highest-grossing nominee at $415 million.
Can it win? Eventually an animated movie will make the leap and win the big award, but this won’t be the one. It may have made grown men across the world cry, but the Academy has too much serious fare to give this kids’ flick a chance.
5. The Fighter
The boxing drama serves up a pack of good performances, and director David O. Russell is the culprit for having edged out Boyle and Nolan for a nomination. The movie has enormous heart, so can it please voters enough to inch its way to the top?
Can it win? The Fighter has been included on nearly every Best Picture list since the award season began, but its best chances rest in its supporting-acting nominations: Melissa Leo and Christian Bale, both of whom are frontrunners in their respective categories. The two have racked up an array of awards, but the film continually falls short of a win in the top categories. Leo and Bale can look forward to a promising night, but Russell and company should just relax when the final category comes around.
4. True Grit
The film boasts a stellar cast (Jeff Bridges, Matt Damon, Josh Brolin, Hailee Steinfeld), and it’s helmed by Joel and Ethan Coen, so it seems like it should be a surefire contender. It’s also a moderate box-office success, coming in as the Coen brothers’ highest-grossing film to date.
Can it win? The Coen brothers’ Director nomination helps, but it’s a little too Western for this year’s modernity-infused category. It could receive some votes from older Academy members reminiscent of the film’s 1969 original, but its dark humor and mainstream popularity still isn’t quite memorable enough to send it to the top. In fact, expect it to be shut out of all the major categories. Bummer.
3. Black Swan
Darren Aronofsky’s stylish psychological thriller about a darkly competitive production of Swan Lake is probably the most inventive movie in the category. It’s expected to reach $100 million by the end of its box-office run, and lead actress Natalie Portman will likely earn her first statuette for her impassioned turn as the lead in the ballet.
Can it win? Portman has swept a heck of a lot of the precursor awards, but Swan has neglected to collect any top-prize honors, which leaves it out in the cold as far as this category is concerned. Perhaps it could claim the BAFTA, which serves as the final precursor award, on Feb. 13, but it would still makes this category a long shot for Swan. The film will have to rely on Portman to carry its only significant win.
2. The Kids Are All Right
The indie dramedy about a lesbian couple whose sperm donor reenters their lives nabbed the Golden Globe for Best Picture – Comedy or Musical, so could it have a shot at this one, too? Annette Benning is Portman’s biggest competition, it’s earned mostly rave reviews and it serves as the one mandatory comedy entry in the writing categories.
Can it win? Perhaps this movie will be the route the Academy takes it if wants to surpass expectations. Probably not, though. The old fogies aren’t likely to acknowledge such a comedic piece (the last time they did was Shakespeare in Love in 1998). If it’s lucky, the quirky flick will sneak-attack The King’s Speech to win Best Original Screenplay.
1. The King’s Speech
The Social Network’s biggest competitor is my personal favorite in the category, and it very well could win. The true story of King George VI’s speech problem, the film has managed to nudge ahead of Network as the frontrunner thanks to its late-in-the-game prizes. It isn’t a box-office champ, but that probably won’t faze the Academy, considering it awarded The Hurt Locker last year, which attracted only $17 million.
Can it win? For now, it’s an arms race between Speech and Network. But if Harvey Weinstein continues on the aggressive campaign trail he has established, which includes a toned-down PG-13 release of the film, the kingly drama may prevail. Its chances will improve even more if it wins the BAFTA. Given its subject matter, Speech is a bit of a safer choice as far as standard Oscar bait goes, so the final question is: Does the Academy want to seem youthful by honoring the Generation Z manifesto Network, or will it give Best Picture to the beautifully constructed (yet more geriatric) Speech? It’s pretty much a coin toss at this point, but I’d place my bet on Network for now.
For a full list of nominations, click here.
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